There is growing evidence that global economic growth has probably already peaked. We can only expect an aggravation, say experts Saxo Bank.
“At the end of 2017 came the concept of” synchronized global growth / economic stimulation “. A quarter later, analysts begin to understand that there is no synchronized global growth, “says the prognosis. We see the example of the economies of China, as well as the US and the EU, wrote Tuesday, April 3 Gazeta.ru news site.
How China will react to possible US trade sanctions
The most vulnerable sector of the Chinese economy is real estate. In recent years, it has been able to grow thanks to excessive government-subsidized borrowing. Today, housing prices in China are three-quarters dependent on the accessibility of credit, and the financing of the sector through government credits is shrinking.
It will be difficult for China to reduce real estate prices while avoiding the collapse of the market, which could weaken the entire banking and financial system.
“The opening towards the outside is the way for the recovery” of the Algerian economy, estimated the Spanish secretary of state.
The economic outlook on the other side of the world is not good either. The likelihood of US President Donald Trump’s tax reform leading to significant economic growth is low, experts at Saxo Bank say.
Can China pull the strings in the sanctions war with the US?
The only hope lies in rapid productivity growth, which is unlikely for objective reasons. Many key factors – the weakening of credit support, the weaker but not yet negative rise in commercial and industrial credit and the flattening of the profitability curve – show that the US is close to the end of a cycle. economic, summarize the experts.
But the most unpleasant surprise, according to analysts, comes from the euro zone. The latest information from IHS Markit and the European Commission clearly indicates that the pace of economic growth has stabilized.
“The euro zone continues to rely heavily on exports, while the level of demand remains too low. The crisis in the euro area is far from over: the analysis of the trade balance of Spain and Italy clearly reveals that the improvement comes mainly from higher demand outside the euro area and of a monetary weakening, “say the experts of Saxo Bank.
Much of this new forecast is devoted to the problem of protectionism. In March, the Saxo Bank Geopolitical Risk Index reached its monthly peak since 2003, when the war in Iraq began.
Beijing taxes 15% and 25% on 128 US products
In addition, the experts recognize that the protectionist measures really capable of enrage Beijing are not yet adopted by the United States. For its part, China does not want a trade war either. Chinese President Xi Jinping has strengthened his power, but he needs economic growth in his country.
The final part of these forecasts indicates that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the central banks of the developed countries to control the situation against the backdrop of slower growth in the main countries of the world. Any upheaval that appears insignificant on the market could lead to the collapse of the stock market.
The opinions expressed in this content are the sole responsibility of the author of the article taken from Russian media and translated in its entirety into French.